After The Halving Bitcoin Prices Have Not Skyrocketed, This Sentiment Is The Cause. The movement of Bitcoin (BTC) is still in the range of USD 63,000 after the Halving on April 20 2024.
Bitcoin in March 2024 experienced a brief spike to a new record high of USD 73,680 or the equivalent of IDR 1.19 billion, followed by a rapid decline to a low of USD 59,630 or the equivalent of IDR 963.7 million.
This shows doubts among traders and investors regarding the next direction of the market, especially after the Bitcoin halving there was no significant change. Tokocrypto trader, Fyqieh Fachrur, explained that during this week after the halving on April 20, Bitcoin was still under pressure and negative sentiment.
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Several factors contributed to this negative performance, including anticipation of technology companies’ quarterly earnings reports in the United States to the Israel-Iran conflict.
“Bitcoin’s negative performance this week can be attributed to fears of a correction in the US stock market, the escalating crisis in the Middle East, and reduced confidence in the Chinese economy,” said Fyqieh in a press release, Thursday (25/4/2024).
Fyqieh added that this was exacerbated by the funding rate turning negative for the first time this year, just before the recent halving event.
A negative funding rate indicates market sentiment has turned bearish when short positions outweigh long positions.
Furthermore, Fyqieh explained that the halving cycle this year will be slightly different compared to previous events. So far, there have been four Bitcoin halvings, on April 20 2024, previously on May 11 2020, July 9 2016 and November 28 2012.
After The Halving Bitcoin Prices Have Not Skyrocketed, This Sentiment Is The Cause. This halving resulted in a decrease in Bitcoin mining rewards by 50%, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As a result, the number of Bitcoins in circulation is increasingly scarce, causing a surge in demand among investors.
This is primarily because Bitcoin supply is limited, with only a maximum of 21 million coins in circulation at any time.
“Bitcoin price movements will be a little different after this year’s halving, as BTC has experienced quite a large spike, and even reached new record highs before the halving itself. Therefore, the entire price cycle that usually surrounds this event seems to have become more compressed, ” said Fyqieh.
Fyqieh said, another main reason why the Bitcoin halving has not caused a large price spike, is because the Fed or the US Federal Reserve has not given a strong signal for reducing interest rates.
Looking at the increase in prices after the halving in 2020, at that time the Fed had a fairly loose monetary policy with interest rates at that time relatively low.
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“Bitcoin price stagnation after the halving can be considered a normal phenomenon. Many expected a significant price increase after the halving, even though the effects of this halving were actually felt in the 2-4 months after,” said Fyqieh.
Bitcoin Opportunity to Price USD 100,000
Fyqieh estimates that the maximum price Bitcoin still has a chance of reaching by the end of this year is around USD 100,000 or around IDR 1.6 billion.
“However, this achievement also depends on market sentiment and the potential for large demand from institutions,” he explained.
Looking back at history, the 2012 halving marked the beginning of Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, pushing its price 92 times post-halving. Subsequent halving events in 2016 and 2020 saw significant increases of 30-fold and 8-fold respectively.
After The Halving Bitcoin Prices Have Not Skyrocketed, This Sentiment Is The Cause. Disclaimer: Every investment decision is in the hands of the reader. Study and analyze before buying and selling Crypto. Liputan6.com is not responsible for profits and losses arising from investment decisions.
